No. 5, 2005
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    No. 5, 2005

    Forecasts

    Abstract. The paper overviews the types of electronic books, their merits, drawbacks, added value, demand and benefits for various user categories. A concept of electronic hyperbook is introduced, the schemes and examples of paper books reincarnation are adduced. The results of foreign marketing polls are presented. The paper suggests to create electronic hyperbooks and on-line problem-oriented hyperbook libraries for improving the efficiency of scientific knowledge production, dissemination, acquisition, and utilization.
    Pashchenko F.F., Gusev V.B., Antipov V.I.The Consequences of Russia Entry into WTO (pp. 9-18)
    Abstract. The paper describes macroeconomic forecasts based on the Russian domestic product reproduction model adapted to the statistical data structure. The prediction results of Russia WTO entry consequences are estimated.
    Surveys

    Abstract. The evolution and state of the art of large-scale systems simulation are reviewed. The problems of modern metamodels development and the ways to solve them for improving the simulated plants operation efficiency are discussed.
    General Aspects of Control Theory

    Abstract. To improve the management efficiency of socio-economic and organizational systems, the following four scientific methods are proposed: golden section, soft resonance management, cognitive analysis, and reflexive management. The paper briefly discusses the featured properties of these methods, adduces some examples, and lists the advisable application fields. State Management Scenarios.
    Large-Scale Systems Development

    Kul’ba V.V., Kononov D.A., Chernov I.V., Yanich S.S.The Serbia And Montenegro Union Case Study (pp. 33-42)
    Abstract. The paper presents application results of a new topical scientific research direction: complex systems scenario design. It discusses modeling premises, a model of socio-economic system behavior, and the factors causing its condition changes. The resulting scenarios of synergetic behavior, direct and attractive management of Serbia and Montenegro Union for the next 10…15 years are offered. The paper specifies the necessary implementation stages for socio-economic transformations to ensure effective goals achievement.
    Abstract. The paper estimates the status of governmental regulation of post-socialist economy transformation process. It concludes about the strategic importance of creating effective institutional environment and the need to increase the role of government in its formation. Main lines of institutional environment improvement at the current stage of reforms are discerned. The paper adduces the examples of Moscow governments actions in search of mechanisms ensuring both public law compliance and the improvement of enterprise business practices within an integrated business system and in view of enterprises interests balance, economic progress, and national interests.
    Tsyganov V.V., Bagamaev R.A.Capital Centers Formation Mechanism (pp. 51-54)
    Abstract. The conditions of enterprise investment attraction are found. The paper shows that economic liberty entails the creation of property and capital centers. It determines the conditions of regional capital centers formation and shows that with the current level of exporters excess profits outflow, the participation of Russia in WTO will result in national budget shrinkage.
    Control in Social and Economic Systems

    Ivaschenko A.A., Nizhegorodtsev R.M., Novikov D.A. Innovative and Investment Policy: A Technology Change Model (pp. 55-57)
    Abstract. A dynamic model of technologies change is formulated and investigated. The problems of optimal innovative policy (What are the optimal moments to start R&D and to apply their results?) and optimal investment policy (What is the optimal investment schedule for new technologies?) are solved.
    Abstract. A method for revealing the opportunities of and the threats to socio-economic object development is presented. The method was developed on the basis of cognitive approach and SWOT analysis methodology. Its application is advisable at the stage of target setting and object development strategy formation.
    Abstract. The paper analyzes the relationships between enterprise development targets, its robustness, planning, and management practices under external and internal disturbances.
    Systems Modeling

    Abstract. A mathematical model of external negative impacts propagation across a complex system structure is developed. Qualitative and quantitative characteristics are introduced to estimate system elements susceptibility to negative impacts dependent on element location in the system structure. Several synergetic effects were discovered in process of model investigation.
    Abstract. The logical approach to the practical identification tasks is proposed that allows to evaluate the validity of methods used for solving such problems and to reveal the factors affecting the validity of identification-based solutions. Application examples are adduced.
    Abstract. The paper reviews the research in the area of discrete stochastic systems with identifier used for solving the problems of control systems design and operation under incomplete a priori information about the plant and external disturbance properties. The role of identification-based (indirect) approach among alternative synthesis procedures is discussed in view of algorithms computational complexity. The problem of attainable identifier speed is also considered.
    Control in Medical and Biological Systems

    Abstract. Based on classic control theory, the paper attempts to find a relationship between the concepts of health in science and in common life. It justifies the need in public health control policy and concludes that effective health control is possible only if both the State and the Individual participate in it. Such control includes education activities as mandatory governmental measures, while the education would result in the Individuals responsible attitude to his/her own health.
    Chronicle



    2007.