Abstract. Since 2014, the Russian government has been implementing an economic policy of import substitution. On this path, the need for economic research using mathematical models of economic management at different levels (enterprise, industry, and the entire economy) becomes crucial. Among such modeling approaches, note input–output tables, yielding quantitative estimates with direct and indirect links throughout the entire production chain. This paper focuses on the import intensity of Russian industries in 2014–2022. The objective is to obtain dynamic industry-level estimates of import intensity for each year of the period under consideration. The analytical tool is the author’s input–output model for the Russian economy, which incorporates a dedicated import block. Explicit formulas are introduced in this model to calculate the import intensity of intermediate output by industries within the input–output framework. The model is based on the statistical data on intermediate consumption flows from the Inter-Country Input–Output (ICIO) tables, published by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) in 2025. The model is tested on the Russian mining sector. The import intensity dynamics across all industries of this sector are estimated for the period under consideration. According to the findings, in contrast to the previous years, 2022 witnessed a sharp substitution of intermediate machinery imports by domestic supplies in the mining sector, i.e., by 10% on average, depending on the industry. Some promising improvements of the model are identified.
Keywords: input–output tables, OECD ICIO, industries management, mining, import substitution, import intensity, sanctions.
The Import Intensity of Russian Industries under Sanctions: An Analysis Using Input–Output Tables