The Sectoral Structure Dynamics of a Labor Market Based on the Balance Mathematical Model

Abstract. This paper proposes an approach to considering control actions on the sectoral structure dynamics of a labor market when forecasting sectoral employment indicators. The forecasting scheme is based on the balance mathematical model of inter-sectoral labor resource movements. In the forecasting scheme considered previously, the trends of indicators characterizing inter-sectoral labor force mobility were determined independently of each other. In what follows, this forecasting scheme is modified by introducing a grouping method for the indicators of inter-sectoral labor resource movements and a criterion for determining the general trend of indicators within each group. The modified forecasting scheme is applied to calculate sectoral employment forecasts for the labor market of the Russian Federation in 2011–2016, and the forecasts are compared with the previous results. The expected employment rate is forecasted for the end of 2022 using sectoral employment and unemployment data for 2017–2021 according to the second edition of the All-Russian Classifier of Types of Economic Activity (OKVED). A method for determining the result of control actions is presented on an example of the Russian Federation labor market in 2017–2022: changes in the sectoral employment forecasts are demonstrated in the case of considering control actions on the agricultural and industrial sectors of the market.

Keywords: the sectoral structure of a labor market, balance mathematical model, inter-sectoral labor resource movements, control actions, the effect of control actions, employment forecasting, labor market.