Scenario Modeling of Economic Growth Based on Indicative Planning

Abstract. This paper considers a multilevel indicative planning model for target indicators in the “World–Country–Industries–Resources–Projects” system. The proposed simulation model implements scenario planning. The problem of analyzing and forecasting the country’s target indicators, using the example of Gross Domestic Product at Purchasing Power Parity (GDP at PPP), is formulated for individual industries. The growth rates of individual industries’ GDP and Gross Value Added (GVA) necessary for implementing the target scenario are estimated. Specific efficiency indicators for financial and human resources are determined: labor productivity and capital intensity. The investment in fixed assets and human resources necessary for implementing the target scenario are estimated. As demonstrated, implementing the target scenario of GVA growth requires measures to accelerate labor productivity growth, and the most important industries in this context are identified. The study is based on initial data provided by the World Bank and the Federal State Statistics Service of the Russian Federation.

Keywords: modeling, forecasting, targeting, indicative planning, management, large-scale systems, system dynamics.