Scenario Simulation of the Achievement of National Targets: A Case Study of The Russian Stock Market

Abstract. This paper is devoted to scenarios for achieving the targets of stock market development. The President of the Russian Federation has set a national target: the Russian stock market shall reach a capitalization of 66% of the national gross domestic product (GDP) by 2030 and 75% of the GDP by 2036. As of the end of 2025, the capitalization of the Russian stock market was nearly 100 times lower than that of the United States, even though Russia’s GDP at purchasing power parity was roughly one-sixth of the US GDP. An enlarged scheme is proposed to analyze the achievement of national security targets. The measures described in strategic planning documents on stock market development are examined in detail; however, they do not specify the factors necessary for the intensive development and higher efficiency of stock market participants. As shown below, the inertial development scenario is insufficient; the parameters are evaluated under which the targets of stock market development can be achieved. The factors of a multiple increase in the volume of Russia’s stock market are considered. An original two-period discounted cash flow valuation model is used to study influence factors for target indicators. Due to its analytical form, this model significantly simplifies its parameter analysis as well as its application to a broad range of enterprises in the stock market. The model scenarios considered demonstrate the possibility of achieving the target market capitalization indicators by increasing initial public offerings (IPOs) and improving the operational efficiency of Russian issuers. This study is based on the input data provided by the World Bank, the Federal State Statistics Service, and the Federal Tax Service of the Russian Federation.

Keywords: modeling, forecasting, national security, large-scale systems, stock market, enterprise valuation, efficiency.

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Dranko, O.I., Rezchikov, A.F., Stepanovskaya, I.A., Bogomolov, A.S., and Kushnikov, V.A., Scenario Simulation of the Achievement of National Targets: a Case Study of the Russian Stock Market. Control Sciences 4, 52–64 (2026).