Modeling Social Attitude to Introducing Epidemic Safety Measures in a Pandemic

Abstract. The COVID-19 pandemic is a global human-scale emergency that has caused many negative effects. To mitigate them, it is necessary to take competent and well-founded organizational measures. Considering infectious diseases from a mathematical point of view allows solving problems in various spheres of society, studying possible scenarios, identifying epidemiological evolution patterns, and proposing intervention strategies and epidemic control actions. This paper presents a mathematical model for forecasting opinion dynamics on various socially significant issues, in particular, on the introduction of epidemic safety measures in a pandemic. The model reflects the process of information exchange considering the content of disseminated information and the communicative properties of the social system and its elements (connectivity, susceptibility, and sociability).

Keywords: social system, process modeling, informational control, distribution of opinions, anti-epidemic measures.

Funding. This study was supported by the fundamental research project “Methodological Fundamentals of Assessment and Control of Regional Complex Security” within the Development Program of Astrakhan State University for 2021–2030.